Thursday 4^th March 2021

Zipped up to Mt Tambourine this morning to pick up the second edition of The Budo Karate of Mas Oyama; I first spoke about in July last year.

They landed here in Australia yesterday. This is the updated and expanded edition after it’s first publication in 1987. It’s an incredible book. I’ve added a link to purchase on the resources page. Even if you’ve no interest in Martial Arts specifically, the philosophical aspect alone is worth it, especially in today’s world.

The Australian economy grew 3.1% in the December 2020 quarter. We don’t need that information to know the country is in a boom right now.

There’s a wait for everything. New cars, new caravans, parts and equipment all on back order. Even second hand cars have shot up in price the past 3 months. Real estate prices around the country are rocketing up too.

The markets in the US (S&P500 and NASDAQ) have been hammered this week, the gains of the past couple of months gone. So, I’ve been buying.

 

Monday 8^th March 2021

This year’s annual letter to shareholders from Warren Buffett has a bunch of wisdom as they all have for the past 40 years. This paragraph, is a doozy:

Our leadership in fixed-asset ownership, I should add, does not, in itself, signal an investment triumph. The best results occur at companies that require minimal assets to conduct high-margin businesses – and offer goods or services that will expand their sales volume with only minor needs for additional capital. We, in fact, own a few of these exceptional businesses, but they are relatively small and, at best, grow slowly. [Page 13 https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2020ltr.pdf]

He’s talking about ‘Product Leverage’ as described by Naval. No net marginal cost of replication to stamp out copies. Low start up, low overhead and potentially high return businesses are the bomb and where much of the new wealth in the world is being created.

Its fantastic Mr Buffett is acknowledging this. I got started in USANA for these exact reasons back in 2004. Low start up and no cost of replication. Leverage at its beautiful best!

 

Tuesday 9^th March 2021

The sell off of tech stocks in the USA continues. 3 months of gains has been wiped off in the past two weeks. TSLA is down 37% from its recent peak as an example.

The 10-year treasury rate is 1.6% currently.

 

Wednesday 10^th March 2021

That was quick. TSLA rebounded up 19.65% over night, with the 10-year bond rate dropped to 1.54% from 1.59%. Wild times…

 

Friday 12^th March 2021

I used to get so pumped on dividend days. Turns out I’ve (finally) made the transition to being dividend agnostic. Take them or leave them, it’s all the same in the end (and if you’re in a higher tax bracket, may be better not to receive them so no forced tax events multi times a year).

Feels great to let go of that need. One another level, it’s another ‘thing’ in life I’m independent from. All that said, I still love the experience of compounding.

 

Tuesday 16^th March 2021

It’s been around 12 months since the ‘COVID crash’. Looking back it’s easy to see what I should have done (put everything into Bitcoin (BTC) the day it dropped 50%. Would be up over 1000% today).

Thankfully I had the conviction to invest in what I did. There was no selling at the bottom. Only buying as much and as often as I could, as most of the world ran for the exits to the safety of cash.

Looking back, I couldn’t have gone in any harder other then selling one of my kidneys.

Looking back I didn’t have the conviction to buy much BTC then, despite a friend urging me too. There was also another company and space in the US I’d researched and wanted to buy, but didn’t have the conviction too, when push came to shove.

I’ve since bought them. They’re doing great and I’m confident that’ll continue. But the opportunity cost of my lack of conviction at the time is a great lesson for me.

It was ridiculously easy to buy the things I had conviction in. Still is. The only pain was running out of cash. It was near impossible to buy things I lacked conviction in at the time.

Education, research and a genuine personal curiosity have since helped me gain conviction in those areas’ I lacked 12 months ago.

Better late than never. 

 

Wednesday 17^th March 2021

Time frames matter enormously when analysing data. Case in point. Real estate prices have jumped around Australia for buyers and the demand for rentals is currently insane.

A girl at my friends work place had her rent increase $100/week at the end of her lease term last week. The ‘story’ is rental demand is off the charts.

Now, let’s add a year to the time frame. It’s March 2020, the peak of COVID fear. This same girl offers way below market value to rent the vacant apartment. The agent and owner agree to her low-ball offer. It’s their only option at the time. Better than being vacant during a global pandemic for who knows how long?

The recent $100/week increase in rent is more to do with revision to the mean, than solely the current demand.

A couple of DRP’s executed today and added to US holdings overnight.

 

Thursday 25^th March 2021

Most of the east coast of Australia has been dealing with flooding this past week. I didn’t escape it either. Spent a few days moping water and saving the floor as best I could.

On the investing side of things, been chipping away at buying a US company. It’s current around 30% down from its peak. I intent holding it long term so it a good time to accumulate.

While the property market is booming and people are buying like crazy here in Australia (obviously people are also selling like crazy too, because for every buyer there has to be a seller) xxxx sold two of his properties for ridiculously great prices.

He owns a few places so took this as an opportunity to sell two of them, in popular beach side suburb in northern NSW, crystallise some profits and retire some debt.

 

Monday 29^th March 2021

Greater Brisbane is back in a snap 3-day lockdown from 5pm today, due to four COVID new cases and ten in total. Outside the Greater Brisbane hotspot, the whole of Queensland has to wear a mask if inside in public places (shopping centre for example)…

Index distribution estimates announced today for the end of the quarter. VAS’s April distributions up 15% on the same time last year to $0.7741cents/share, while international indexes I hold are down. One’s distribution is down 80% this quarter compared to April 2020 distribution.