Thursday 1^st April 2021

USANA launched stage one their Active Nutrition line to their affiliates today. A fantastic range of shakes and bars that are all gluten free and non-GMO and with some diary free and vegan friendly too. I’m pumped incorporating the snack bars daily and adding the plant based protein digestive shake that’s also got medium chain triglycerides in it, to my daily shake.

There are a couple of real new additions to the company product line, being Metabolism+ and a non-stimulant digestive tea. They’ll become available to customers and the broader public on May 13^th.

 

Tuesday 6^th April 2021

Other than dealing with water damage inside from the second bout of heavy rain in three weeks, today I made what I’d call a significant portfolio change. I’ve sold out of a holding completely and will move those funds into a company I’ve been buying in the USA recently.

We’re talking approx. 5% portfolio value. I’ve been reflecting on this for more than a year and a couple of months ago started accumulating it with new funds. What I sold is a great company I’d be happy to hold forever, but I hold another three holding essentially the same as it, which rationally, is over kill. Additionally, I feel the opportunity cost of not doing this is too big.

Bottom line, if I’m making a mistake, it’s one I can recover from. Additionally, I’m confident the business will do well long term. Either way I’m happy I’m mentally ‘free’ enough to do this. Change isn’t always easy.

Truth be told, I’d be comfortable putting more of my portfolio and future funds into it, but figure time, patience and DCA’ing into it will do the trick. There’ll be little to no CGT to pay. I did some shifting of things in an earlier tax year.

Final point. With markets at or close to all time highs and government stimulus in overdrive in Australia and the United States, it’s easy to believe markets will continue to climb. I’ve had to take myself back to Feb/March 2020, the peak of FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) and be sure I can deal with it again holding this company. Time will tell…

In other news, the RBA reported yesterday. They’ve come up with another excuse for the third round of $100 billion dollars of bond buying later this year…

 

Monday 12^th April 2021

Game theory is valuable and worth understanding.

How valuable?

I know a guy named Bob. Bob was in line for a promotion to ‘partner’ in July at a firm he works for. He’d ticked all the boxes. Completed the partner program and was already being paid more than a first year partner. He was to be a salary partner, not an equity partner, so it’s literally nothing more than a title change from ‘Director’ to ‘Partner’.

Along came change in hierarchy at the firm and Bob somehow missed out on the July partner intake. Bob was not impressed, nor was Bob’s boss.

COVID had already delayed by a full year his promotion to partner, before this new scenario.

His boss went into bat for Bob with the hierarchy, but the hierarchy wouldn’t budge.

Bob decided to look elsewhere asking his boss to be a reference. His boss disappointed at the prospect of loosing a key asset, asked ‘what do we have to do to keep you?’

Bob named his price and the firm quickly and happily obliged.

The question is why would the firm not promote Bob to partner when he was already being paid more than first year partners? It was simply a title change.

The next question is why was the firm quick to pay Bob lot more money to stay and be promoted in the January intake?

The answer is found in game theory.

If work is the ‘game’ and the firm’s staff the ‘players’ the goal is to have the players continue playing the game happily.

So, once the promotional decisions had been made for July’s intake, making a change to include Bob would no doubt upset some of the other players, who may be in a similar position. This would result in unhappy players and some people leaving the game.

Instead, by the firm increasing Bob’s wages, it keeps Bob from leaving the game and no one else knows Bob got a significant pay rise to stay, so all the other players are happy to stay in the game.

 

Win-win.

 

Tuesday 13^th April 2021

Bit of a milestone moment, crypto portfolio is up 200%. This including coins with gains of 100%, 200%, 300% and one up to 2000%. It also includes negatives of -7%, -79%, -69% and -80%.

I put this down largely to luck. A rising tide lifts all ships.

While I understand (some what) and value the direction of this technology I’m not expert in it.

Unfortunately, I’m talking petty cash amounts, so it’s not life changing in anyway, shape or form...

 

Wednesday 14^th April 2021

What a night. BTC hit another all time high and the portfolio I mentioned yesterday when up another 20% overnight. It just crazy…

I’m under no illusion that none of it is skill on my behalf. It’s largely random and could easily go the other way at any point.

It is a fantastic experience in managing emotions, dealing with the unknown and cutting though the signal versus the noise. At least it has been for me. It’s a fun ride with a potentially positive asymmetrical return, if luck is on my side. I’m also noticing diminishing returns in terms of the market movement’s impact on my emotions.

 

Sunday 18^th April 2021

Crypto market had a flash pullback this afternoon. BTC went from around $64,000 to $$56,000 for example. My portfolio shifted from plus 220% to around plus 165% within an hour.

 

Tuesday 20^th April 2021

Vanguard paid its quarterly distributions and/or DRP today.

Receiving boring, regular passive income, no matter the amount, is a great feeling, despite it being no different to not receiving dividends and selling shares when income is needed.

 

Friday 23^rd April 2021

The crypto market has contracted the past week. My portfolio is now up 105%. Xxx text me he’s put $250,000USD in to BTC the past three days. He’s putting in another $800,000USD and a further $200,000USD in the ETH too. In ten years time, he’ll look at it and know if it’s been a good decision or not.

It’s important to point out he’s a wealthy guy and this is a small portion of his net asset position. It’s all-relative to each persons financial position, is the point I’m wanting to make. This is defiantly not advice.

 

Wednesday 28^th April 2021

It’s reporting time in the USA. Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Tesla and others have shared their numbers and their all way up.

The crypto space is rapidly making up for lost ground. Prices are moving back up again.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has committed to another $150 billion dollars of bond buying, $100 billion to kick off in September and the next tranche of $50 billion in March 2022.

Without the bond buying programs things would likely look different in Australia.