Monday 2^nd August 2021

Surprise, surprise our three-day lockdown has been extended a further five days to Sunday 4pm this weekend.

The market doesn’t seem to care though, it’s flying! Up 1.5% today in Australia and internationally.

YouTube has censored some of Sky News Australia’s videos on their platform, which is criminal, especially now.

You can read more about it here: https://www.skynews.com.au/business/media/youtubes-sky-news-australia-suspension-disturbing-assault-on-freedom-of-thought/news-story/cc2ce1cad0dd5ec9693e2192759eab8b

It’s this issue I continually bang on about – censorship and free speech. The road to hell is paved with good intentions. The moment distribution is censored and information is curated to suit a narrative – it’s game over.

This is the number one reason I have a website, podcast and newsletter to share my message as opposed to social media platforms. While not as popular, the censorship around them is non-existent (so far) and there are no third parties to interfere, ‘fact check’, cancel or introduce new barriers to distribution.

If someone wants to read, listen and communicate, they can. If they don’t, they don’t. Simple.

Let people decide what’s valuable, helpful, and accurate and what’s not.

Professor Feynman said ‘I would rather have questions that cannot be answered than answers that cannot be questioned’. Its answers that cannot be questioned is where we find much mainstream media and social media today. This is not healthy.

If I’m mistaken in anything I share:

1. I should be free to be mistaken (as opposed to censored) and then eventually be corrected and learn from that experience. This is how we learn, improve and grow.
2. The market will discipline or reward me in the long run. In the short term things can get nosy, but long term the appropriate signals will stand the test of time and market forces.

It’s vital we let this process play out.

We don’t need some self appointed 3rd party determiner of ‘truth’ to decide for you.

The FB ‘fact checks’ are a fantastic example of this, having already failed miserably in relation to the ‘lab leak’ theory. 

For over one year that theory has been ‘factually’ incorrect and important conversation muted because those who determine ‘truth’ on social media platforms said so. 

Fast forward to a month ago, and you wouldn’t believe it, the ‘lab leak theory is now a valid discussion. 

What a joke.

It’s vital we have open conversations AND ideally seek to understand opposing views to our own. Doing this helps me have more empathy for others points of view and look at my own biases from a different perspective.

Try it out yourself next time you find yourself heavily leading one way.

Another important asset is the ability to hear out someone with an alternative point of view and still be friends/respectful to each other after the conversation. Unfortunately this ability is deteriorating in society rapidly…

 

Tuesday 3^rd August 2021

Turns out I cannot put links in the episode notes section in the ‘Healthy Business’ podcast. I’ve just got around circling back and adding them to each episode. Looks like the blog at www.kdmhealth.com is the place to go for such details.

The RBA met today, keeping interest rates on hold at 0.01%. They have also cut the weekly buying of government bonds from $5 billion to $4 billion dollars a week, while reinterring their 2-3% inflation narrative.

 

Thursday 5^th August 2021

Police have set up testing checkpoints around the Gold Coast where we have no issues with the virus. xxx saw them set up at Narrowneck beach this afternoon and xxx told me her boss was food shopping at Ferry Road Markets today and police were scanning car number plates to check if they were within 10km’s of their homes.

This is absolutely insane. I have zero doubt history will show this to be the case. Plus it’s only a matter of time before people who’ve been triple vaccinated start turning on people who’ve only been double vaccinated.

There’s a fantastic saying that I feel may be playing out in Australia right now.

Good times create weak people.

Weak people create bad times.

Bad times create strong people.

Strong people create good times.

Here in Australia, we’ve had it good for an incredibly long time. This has potentially bread a weak cohort of people. It feels like a growing part of society are offended at everything and will cry and attempt cancel anything that doesn’t resonate with them.  

Gone are the day’s people having different opinions, being respectful about it and getting on with life while still being friends. We’re so rich as a society now, have it so good and life is so easy we feel the need to major in on minor things.

The police state that southeast Queensland is in now is unbelievable. If this were a genuine risk to society, people would display the risk in their behaviours. Period. They would not need to be reminded of it in every 30min ‘news’ update.

Its crystal clear lockdowns do not work. They simply kick the can further down the road. They will not eradicate the virus (nature ALWAYS prevails over human intervention). People who are double vaccinated are still getting the virus and still transmitting it.

We are however now being told (after being told vaccinated people cannot get the virus, which is false) vaccinated people wont suffer as much if they get it.  

It’s difficult to believe what were being told. First masks don’t help, but somehow now they do. Then lockdowns don’t help, but now they do. Then vaccinated people cannot get the virus, but turns out they can and are. Vaccinate to protect against the spread of the virus, but the vaccinated are spreading it too. Now apparently being vaccinated lessens the effect if you catch the virus. I don’t know if this accurate or not, but using the recent past to predict the future, I’m beginning to wonder…

 

Sunday 8^th August 2021

xxx shared this example with me today. In 2017 flu season New South Wales had 654 deaths, with a vaccine available. Total NSW COVID deaths for all of 2020 and until August 2021 is 82.

Data from the influenza Monthly Epidemiology Report, NSW, December 2017 (including summary for the year 2017).

 

Tuesday 10^th August 2021

Love this tweet from Morgan Housel, author of The Psychology of Money:

“No matter what the economy is doing, a large and loud group of investors will always predict:

• Hyperinflation is right around the corner
• Economic collapse is imminent
• The dollar is doomed
• The market is overvalued

Been that way forever and probably wont change. Any of these things could happen, some of them will. But when you read enough financial commentary you realise the current arguments are just new twists that have been made for decades.”

 

Wednesday 11^th August 2021

Anyone who’s watched the movie ‘Wedding Crashers’ will know about ‘wedding season’. Well here in Australia it’s ‘reporting season’ for listed companies.

Today CBA reported a bumper year. They’re paying a final dividend of $2 fully franked and a $6 billion dollar share buy back program as a second way of returning excess cash and franking credits value to shareholders.

For people new to shares, share buyback are on of five ways companies return value to share holders. The below is from the 2^nd April 2020 entry:

“…shareholder’s extracting a dividend weather it’s via:

1. Company paying dividends
2. Companies doing share buybacks
3. Companies reinvesting into their business
4. Companies paying down debt
5. Companies acquiring new businesses (and therefore profits)

The first option above is preferred by me, however, I’m under no illusion options 2-5 are equally fantastic options and the net result will be exactly that same, just that I’d have to sell some shares, equivalent to say 3-4% of my holdings, and manufacture my own dividend during the year.

Easy.

With this understood, its business as usual investing”.

 

Thursday 12^th August 2021

While a little dated and UK based, this documentary is timeless for anyone wanting to understand index investing and the value of low cost, low turnover broadly diversified investing. The commentary from investing legends is a bonus. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwkjqGd8NC4

Turns out Australian shares have closed at a new ‘all time high’, for the sixth time since August began and are up more than 15% since the year began.

In the past, I may have got sucked into the whole ‘new all time high, a crash must around the corner’ type thinking. I don’t play those games anymore because I have absolutely no idea on the timing of them.

I know what’s ahead – a combination of opportunity (significant crashes in prices in the market) mixed with difficulty (buying shares at all time highs, like now), it’s known. What’s unknown is exactly when these things will happen and how long they’ll hang around for.

All this said, I’m not oblivious to the reality that historically low interest rates seem to be having on asset prices, nor the fact central banks around the world are active in the market. A change in one or both of these will likely have an impact and provide some long-term opportunity I’m hoping.

Additionally I’m fully aware I’ve got to pay to play and any coming day we could have a period of 50% - 95% draw down (happen over weeks, months, years or decades) in asset prices that would send shock waves around the world, our economy and our asset positions.

Another thing I’m noticing is it’s just as difficult for some people to buy shares now (feels expensive at all time highs) as it was during the lows (March/April 2020 lots of fear around and price drops day after day) as an example.

There’s a quote I’ve heard around being able to keep your head and behaviour’s clear, when everyone around you is loosing theirs, is an asset in itself. The challenge is, it’s easier said than done!

 

Saturday 14^th August 2021

USANA’s annual global convention is happening online now. While not the same as being there in person seeing friends from all over the world, the online platform they’re created is fantastic.

The highlight so far has been the ‘Future Lab’ session for sure. Apart from the updates in research and product development, they mentioned a book being released next month titled ‘Yin, Yang, You – Bio hacking from Ancient Wisdom’. It written by Dr Oz and a few USANA scientists from what I can tell. Will add it to my reading list.  

 

Tuesday 17^th August 2021

Wrapped up a 3-day virtual coaching camp with King Sports International tonight. Since 2005 at this time of year, I’ve been Park City, Utah participating in this coach and athlete training camp. This year was the first year doing it online. It was still great.

 

Wednesday 18^th August 2021

It’s reporting season and a few companies I hold have reported. The results have been fantastic all things considered.

It’s probably also time to give an update on the state of COVID in Australia currently for context…

We have entered a period of insanity here in Australia in my opinion. It’s just crazy and I don’t know where to start, plus I wish to keep it short.

Let’s start with this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ut2yHSc5rWc revealing the AHPRA (Australian Health Practitioner Regulatory Agency) creating a mandate that it’s practitioners have to adhere too. It’s censorship on a large scale in the health profession.

There’s always something fishy going on when important conversations and views get censored.

Yesterday the NSW Premier started at a press conference that ‘even if we get to an 80% vaccination level of people double jabbed, if cases remain high, restrictions will remain in place’.

So remind me again, what’s the point of vaccinating? We know for certain, vaccination doesn’t stop people from getting COVID (despite initially being told vaccination would stop us from getting COVID). Now we’re told it lessens the severity of the virus.

Now, only vaccinated essential workers can cross the QLD/NSW boarder and Western Australia is doing something similar.

This is hurting thousands of businesses and peoples lives. South Australia, the ACT, Victoria (for the 6^th time!) are back in lockdowns. And New Zealand recorded its first case of COVID in 115 days went into a snap stage 4 lockdown on Monday.

Zeroism when it comes to viruses doesn’t work. The growing stupidity in politics is ramping up, evident by the focus on achieving zero cases.

The government also has a growing army of unpaid employees making sure everyone ‘checks in’ in the name of contact tracking. This same government a few weeks ago told us not to talk to our neighbours if we see them in the supermarket, because it’s too dangerous…

It’s getting beyond difficult to explain isolating people from talking to each other in public, sharing our whereabouts electronically, mass vaccination of vaccines provisionally approved (ie still in trial phase) that clearly do no do what they’re intended to do, while there has been zero mandates for exercise, sunshine, eating healthy nutritious foods, weight management (78% of people in hospital with COVID in the USA are obese), cutting out immunosuppressive things like smoking, alcohol, junk food, soft drinks and the like.

Good times create weak people, weak people create bad times, bad times create strong people, strong people create good time and the cycle repeats. Can you guess where I think we are in the cycle…?

 

Thursday 19^th August 2021

We’ve had a couple of days of red in the market and xxx was asking me what’s going on with this red? I couldn’t stop laughing! We’ve just come off a year of close to 30% growth in prices.

He’s in accumulation phase so you’d think he’d want prices to drop. I know I do! It’s purchase prices that set the rate of return.

Simply put, higher the purchase price the lower the rate of return and the lower the number of shares/units you can buy.

Lower the purchase price, the higher the rate of return and the greater the number of shares/units you can buy.

Emotionally people freak out when prices drop, but if you’re in accumulation phase, it’s the best thing that can happen. Selfishly, a bear market for the next 5-10 years would be incredible for me. Fingers crossed…

On another note, xxx emailed and messaged me this morning wanting to talk later in the day. He’s considering leaving Australia to live in Europe permanently. He has the ability to do that financially and citizenship wise. He’s in NSW and the lockdowns have been devastating to so many people. He told me some sad stories… But I also feel he just needed to talk.

If these lockdowns or the fear based messaging from the mainstream media is getting to you or someone you know, best to check in with someone for a chat. Tell them how you’re feeling. If you feel you have no one to talk too, reach out to the professionals at Lifeline on 13 11 14.

And on the other hand if you’re someone who’s sailing through this interesting time with no worries, make an effort each day to check in with the people in your life. We never really know what’s going on in people’s heads and in other people’s relationships. Kindness is definitely king.

In other news, the USA has announced they’re pulling out of Afghanistan and the Taliban will soon take control. I cannot imagine how heavy this is for the people in Afghanistan… I contacted xxx who’s done two tours over there in the Army, he said it was a shit show when they first arrived and will soon return to that state. The duality on this world never ceases to astound me.

 

Monday 23 August 2021

Time for a quick crypto update and the portfolio up around 130% currently. Again, I’m not recommending anything, I’m simply sharing my journey as it’s happening.

Like the division the COVID vaccine has created, crypto has caused a similar division – though no as great a divide – with most people either strongly for or strongly against it and both for good reasons.

Personally, I don’t know the future so I’m in the middle and have exposure for two main reasons:

1. As a means of diversification in my portfolio. Who knows the future may looks significantly different to the past and be heavily reliant on crypto-currency’s so I’m willing to include a little because I don’t know enough to have a concrete position either way.
2. To have some skin in the game in understanding the technology in terms of buying it, storing it and so on.

If it turns out to be a waste of money, it doesn’t matter because I’ve never drunk coffee, so I’m still way ahead financially plus I’ll get a great learning experience. If it turns out to grow in value, I’ll be grateful for having some skin in the game.

So it’s a win-win either way as far as I can tell.

 

Saturday 28^th August 2021

Rational reminder podcast has a fantastic episode on the 4% rule for living off your portfolio in retirement. There's a lot of nuisance around the 4% rule that this episode brings to light. Highly recommend checking it out. https://open.spotify.com/episode/6BZIMOM34OhYqRpUNRXNcU?si=E41sHYWnQgi-InWjinlppw&dl_branch=1

Parts of society have lost the ability to have a conversation around a difference of opinion. Plus people are so quick to ‘label’ people, oh you’re a anti-vaxer or you’re left wing, etc. The moment someone starts ‘labelling’ people, as part of a ‘group’ is the moment the fears and insecurities of that person peak. When emotion is high, logic is low, signalling the end of productive conversation.

Add this demise in communication to the separation happening with lockdowns and the increase ‘communication’ on social media with people saying things online that they wouldn’t say in person and it’s a perfect storm for a further demise in society and relationships.

It’s ok to disagree and still be friends. It’s ok to have different points of view based on different person experiences and still get along. With more access to data, information, knowledge and wisdom than at any point in history, the emotional intelligence circulating in society at the moment sadly must be close to an all time low…

 

Monday 30^th August 2021

xxx getting a 40%+ dividend return from xxx announced their final dividend today.

Regrettably, I jumped on Share Sight to check the total return if I’d have invested $10,000 in it 20 years ago today. Net result over $24,000,000 today. An average annual return of 47% year on year… Insane!

The company has been through hell over the years, but has a strong wind behind its back lately and he bought when most were selling and going to cash.

It’s my hope anyone reading or listening to Project Passive recognises we cannot control the market or market returns. We have to be accepting of the unknown. This unknown is referred to as the Equity Risk Premium. Essentially we get paid ‘danger money’ to accept the returns – what ever they may be – of the unknown and yet to happen future.

The only things we can control if we wish to invest in equities are the fee’s we pay and our behaviours. Yes, there’s a lot bundled up within our behaviours (how much we invest, how often we invest, all our biases, how happy and comfortable we are, our sleep at night factor, how often we look at our portfolios, how we handle large drawdowns (and you have no idea until you experience seeing the value of your portfolio dropped rapidly hour by hour day after day, week by week how you’ll respond), who you listen too, understanding exactly what you’re investing in and the list goes on).

It’s for these reasons I share on what I seeing, thinking, feeling, experiencing, doing over everything else. I have no ‘stock tips’ nor am I on the hunt for a quick win. I’ll happily take one, but it’s not the purpose.

Multiple streams of recurring income, that takes little time, can be done from you phone and adds value to the planet is the goal. It’s not easy. It’s definitely the road less travelled.